Towards Precision of Probabilistic Bounds Propagation
Helmut Thone, Ulrich Guntzer, Werner Kiessling
The DUCK-calculus presented here is a recent approach to cope with probabilistic uncertainty in a sound and efficient way. Uncertain rules with bounds for probabilities and explicit conditional independences can be maintained incrementally. The basic inference mechanism relies on local bounds propagation, implementable by deductive databases with a bottom-up fixpoint evaluation. In situations, where no precise bounds are deducible, it can be combined with simple operations research techniques on a local scope. In particular, we provide new precise analytical bounds for probabilistic entailment.
PDF Link: /papers/92/p315-thone.pdf
AUTHOR = "Helmut Thone
and Ulrich Guntzer and Werner Kiessling",
TITLE = "Towards Precision of Probabilistic Bounds Propagation",
BOOKTITLE = "Proceedings of the Eighth Conference Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-92)",
PUBLISHER = "Morgan Kaufmann",
ADDRESS = "San Mateo, CA",
YEAR = "1992",
PAGES = "315--322"