Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
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Probabilistic Reasoning in Predictive Expert Systems
David Spiegelhalter
Techniques in developing a coherent probabilistic reasoning system are illustrated with reference to a simplified example. Recent work relating statistical models to graphical representation of causal and associative relationships allows a straightforward means of propagating evidence whilst retaining a probabilistic interpretation for predictive statements. This interpretation allows continual criticism of a system's performance, while imprecise quantitative assessments permit learning from experience. Possible limitations of a formal probabilistic approach are discussed.
Keywords: Probabilistic Reasoning System, Predictive Expert Systems
Pages: 47-67
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PDF Link: /papers/85/p47-spiegelhalter.pdf
AUTHOR = "David Spiegelhalter ",
TITLE = "Probabilistic Reasoning in Predictive Expert Systems",
BOOKTITLE = "Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-85)",
PUBLISHER = "Elsevier Science",
ADDRESS = "Amsterdam, NL",
YEAR = "1985",
PAGES = "47--67"

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