Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
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Stratified Analysis of `Probabilities of Causation'
Manabu Kuroki, Zhihong Cai
This paper proposes new formulas for the probabilities of causation difined by Pearl (2000). Tian and Pearl (2000a, 2000b) showed how to bound the quantities of the probabilities of causation from experimental and observational data, under the minimal assumptions about the data-generating process. We derive narrower bounds than Tian-Pearl bounds by making use of the covariate information measured in experimental and observational studies. In addition, we provide identifiable case under no-prevention assumption and discuss the covariate selection problem from the viewpoint of estimation accuracy. These results are helpful in providing more evidence for public policy assessment and dicision making problems.
Pages: 249-256
PS Link:
PDF Link: /papers/06/p249-kuroki.pdf
AUTHOR = "Manabu Kuroki and Zhihong Cai",
TITLE = "Stratified Analysis of `Probabilities of Causation'",
BOOKTITLE = "Proceedings of the Twenty-Second Conference Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-06)",
ADDRESS = "Arlington, Virginia",
YEAR = "2006",
PAGES = "249--256"

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