A Logic for Default Reasoning About Probabilities
A logic is defined that allows to express information about statistical probabilities and about degrees of belief in specific propositions. By interpreting the two types of probabilities in one common probability space, the semantics given are well suited to model the influence of statistical information on the formation of subjective beliefs. Cross entropy minimization is a key element in these semantics, the use of which is justified by showing that the resulting logic exhibits some very reasonable properties.
Keywords: Subjective and statistical probabilities, Cross entropy minimization.
PS Link: ftp://ftp.mpi-sb.mpg.de/pub/guide/staff/jaeger/publications/conferences/UAIFinal.ps.g
PDF Link: /papers/94/p352-jaeger.pdf
AUTHOR = "Manfred Jaeger
TITLE = "A Logic for Default Reasoning About Probabilities",
BOOKTITLE = "Proceedings of the Tenth Conference Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-94)",
PUBLISHER = "Morgan Kaufmann",
ADDRESS = "San Francisco, CA",
YEAR = "1994",
PAGES = "352--359"