Probabilistic Evaluation of Sequential Plans from Causal Models with Hidden Variables
Judea Pearl, James Robins
The paper concerns the probabilistic evaluation of plans in the presence of unmeasured variables, each plan consisting of several concurrent or sequential actions. We establish a graphical criterion for recognizing when the effects of a given plan can be predicted from passive observations on measured variables only. When the criterion is satisfied, a closed-form expression is provided for the probability that the plan will achieve a specified goal.
Keywords: Plan evaluation, causal effect, sequential treatments, causal
diagrams, graphical mo
PDF Link: /papers/95/p444-pearl.pdf
AUTHOR = "Judea Pearl
and James Robins",
TITLE = "Probabilistic Evaluation of Sequential Plans from Causal Models with Hidden Variables",
BOOKTITLE = "Proceedings of the Eleventh Conference Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-95)",
PUBLISHER = "Morgan Kaufmann",
ADDRESS = "San Francisco, CA",
YEAR = "1995",
PAGES = "444--453"