Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
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Counterfactuals and Policy Analysis in Structural Models
Alexander Balke, Judea Pearl
Abstract:
Evaluation of counterfactual queries (e.g., "If A were true, would C have been true?") is important to fault diagnosis, planning, determination of liability, and policy analysis. We present a method of revaluating counterfactuals when the underlying causal model is represented by structural models - a nonlinear generalization of the simultaneous equations models commonly used in econometrics and social sciences. This new method provides a coherent means for evaluating policies involving the control of variables which, prior to enacting the policy were influenced by other variables in the system.
Keywords:
Pages: 11-18
PS Link:
PDF Link: /papers/95/p11-balke.pdf
BibTex:
@INPROCEEDINGS{Balke95,
AUTHOR = "Alexander Balke and Judea Pearl",
TITLE = "Counterfactuals and Policy Analysis in Structural Models",
BOOKTITLE = "Proceedings of the Eleventh Conference Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-95)",
PUBLISHER = "Morgan Kaufmann",
ADDRESS = "San Francisco, CA",
YEAR = "1995",
PAGES = "11--18"
}


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