Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
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Deconvolution of mixing time series on a graph
Alexander Blocker, Edoardo Airoldi
In many applications we are interested in making inference on latent time series from indirect measurements, which are often low-dimensional projections resulting from mixing or aggregation. Positron emission tomography, super-resolution, and network traffic monitoring are some examples. Inference in such settings requires solving a sequence of ill-posed inverse problems, yt = Axt, where the projection mechanism provides information on A. We consider problems in which A specifies mixing on a graph of times series that are bursty and sparse. We develop a multilevel state-space model for mixing times series and an efficient approach to inference. A simple model is used to calibrate regularization parameters that lead to efficient inference in the multilevel state-space model. We apply this method to the problem of estimating point-to-point traffic flows on a network from aggregate measurements. Our solution outperforms existing methods for this problem, and our two-stage approach suggests an efficient inference strategy for multilevel models of multivariate time series.
Pages: 51-60
PS Link:
PDF Link: /papers/11/p51-blocker.pdf
AUTHOR = "Alexander Blocker and Edoardo Airoldi",
TITLE = "Deconvolution of mixing time series on a graph",
BOOKTITLE = "Proceedings of the Twenty-Seventh Conference Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-11)",
ADDRESS = "Corvallis, Oregon",
YEAR = "2011",
PAGES = "51--60"

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