Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
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Towards Solving the Multiple Extension Problem: Combining Defaults and Probabilities
Eric Neufeld, David Poole
The multiple extension problem arises frequently in diagnostic and default inference. That is, we can often use any of a number of sets of defaults or possible hypotheses to explain observations or make Predictions. In default inference, some extensions seem to be simply wrong and we use qualitative techniques to weed out the unwanted ones. In the area of diagnosis, however, the multiple explanations may all seem reasonable, however improbable. Choosing among them is a matter of quantitative preference. Quantitative preference works well in diagnosis when knowledge is modelled causally. Here we suggest a framework that combines probabilities and defaults in a single unified framework that retains the semantics of diagnosis as construction of explanations from a fixed set of possible hypotheses. We can then compute probabilities incrementally as we construct explanations. Here we describe a branch and bound algorithm that maintains a set of all partial explanations while exploring a most promising one first. A most probable explanation is found first if explanations are partially ordered.
Keywords: Multiple Extension Problem, Defaults and Probability
Pages: 305-312
PS Link:
PDF Link: /papers/87/p305-neufeld.pdf
AUTHOR = "Eric Neufeld and David Poole",
TITLE = "Towards Solving the Multiple Extension Problem: Combining Defaults and Probabilities",
BOOKTITLE = "Proceedings of the Third Conference Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-87)",
ADDRESS = "Corvallis, Oregon",
YEAR = "1987",
PAGES = "305--312"

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