Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
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Towards a Normative Theory of Scientific Evidence
David Sher
Abstract:
A scientific reasoning system makes decisions using objective evidence in the form of independent experimental trials, propositional axioms, and constraints on the probabilities of events. As a first step towards this goal, we propose a system that derives probability intervals from objective evidence in those forms. Our reasoning system can manage uncertainty about data and rules in a rule based expert system. We expect that our system will be particularly applicable to diagnosis and analysis in domains with a wealth of experimental evidence such as medicine. We discuss limitations of this solution and propose future directions for this research. This work can be considered a generalization of Nilsson's "probabilistic logic" [Nil86] to intervals and experimental observations.
Keywords:
Pages: 509-517
PS Link:
PDF Link: /papers/90/p509-sher.pdf
BibTex:
@INPROCEEDINGS{Sher90,
AUTHOR = "David Sher ",
TITLE = "Towards a Normative Theory of Scientific Evidence",
BOOKTITLE = "Proceedings of the Sixth Conference Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-90)",
PUBLISHER = "AUAI Press",
ADDRESS = "Corvallis, Oregon",
YEAR = "1990",
PAGES = "509--517"
}


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