Models vs. Inductive Inference for Dealing with Probabilistic Knowledge
Norman Dalkey
Abstract:
Two different approaches to dealing with probabilistic knowledge are examined models and inductive inference. Examples of the first are: influence diagrams [1], Bayesian networks [2], loglinear models [3, 4]. Examples of the second are: gamesagainst nature [5, 6] varieties of maximumentropy methods [7, 8, 9], and the author's minscore induction [10]. In the modeling approach, the basic issue is manageability, with respect to data elicitation and computation. Thus, it is assumed that the pertinent set of users in some sense knows the relevant probabilities, and the problem is to format that knowledge in a way that is convenient to input and store and that allows computation of the answers to current questions in an expeditious fashion. The basic issue for the inductive approach appears at first sight to be very different. In this approach it is presumed that the relevant probabilities are only partially known, and the problem is to extend that incomplete information in a reasonable way to answer current questions. Clearly, this approach requires that some form of induction be invoked. Of course, manageability is an important additional concern. Despite their seeming differences, the two approaches have a fair amount in common, especially with respect to the structural framework they employ. Roughly speaking, this framework involves identifying clusters of variables which strongly interact, establishing marginal probability distributions on the clusters, and extending the subdistributions to a more complete distribution, usually via a product formalism. The product extension is justified on the modeling approach in terms of assumed conditional independence; in the inductive approach the product form arises from an inductive rule.
Keywords: Inductive Inference, Probabilistic Knowledge, Bayesian Networks
Pages: 39
PS Link:
PDF Link: /papers/86/p3dalkey.pdf
BibTex:
@INPROCEEDINGS{Dalkey86,
AUTHOR = "Norman Dalkey
",
TITLE = "Models vs. Inductive Inference for Dealing with Probabilistic Knowledge",
BOOKTITLE = "Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 2 Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI86)",
PUBLISHER = "Elsevier Science",
ADDRESS = "Amsterdam, NL",
YEAR = "1986",
PAGES = "39"
}

