Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
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An Odds Ratio Based Inference Engine
David Vaughan, Bruce Perrin, Robert Yadrick, Peter Holden, Karl Kempf
Abstract:
Expert systems applications that involve uncertain inference can be represented by a multidimensional contingency table. These tables offer a general approach to inferring with uncertain evidence, because they can embody any form of association between any number of pieces of evidence and conclusions. (Simpler models may be required, however, if the number of pieces of evidence bearing on a conclusion is large.) This paper presents a method of using these tables to make uncertain inferences without assumptions of conditional independence among pieces of evidence or heuristic combining rules. As evidence is accumulated, new joint probabilities are calculated so as to maintain any dependencies among the pieces of evidence that are found in the contingency table. The new conditional probability of the conclusion is then calculated directly from these new joint probabilities and the conditional probabilities in the contingency table.
Keywords: Expert Systems, Uncertain Inference, Conditional Probability
Pages: 135-142
PS Link:
PDF Link: /papers/85/p135-vaughan.pdf
BibTex:
@INPROCEEDINGS{Vaughan85,
AUTHOR = "David Vaughan and Bruce Perrin and Robert Yadrick and Peter Holden and Karl Kempf",
TITLE = "An Odds Ratio Based Inference Engine",
BOOKTITLE = "Proceedings of the First Conference Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-85)",
PUBLISHER = "AUAI Press",
ADDRESS = "Corvallis, Oregon",
YEAR = "1985",
PAGES = "135--142"
}


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