Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
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Is There a Role for Qualitative Risk Assessment?
Paul Krause, John Fox, Philip Judson
Abstract:
Classically, risk is characterized by a point value probability indicating the likelihood of occurrence of an adverse effect. However, there are domains where the attainability of objective numerical risk characterizations is increasingly being questioned. This paper reviews the arguments in favour of extending classical techniques of risk assessment to incorporate meaningful qualitative and weak quantitative risk characterizations. A technique in which linguistic uncertainty terms are defined in terms of patterns of argument is then proposed. The technique is demonstrated using a prototype computer-based system for predicting the carcinogenic risk due to novel chemical compounds.
Keywords: Qualitative uncertainty, risk assessment, linguistic uncertainty terms, argumentatio
Pages: 386-393
PS Link: FTP://acl.icnet.uk/pub/StAR/qual_risk.ps
PDF Link: /papers/95/p386-krause.pdf
BibTex:
@INPROCEEDINGS{Krause95,
AUTHOR = "Paul Krause and John Fox and Philip Judson",
TITLE = "Is There a Role for Qualitative Risk Assessment?",
BOOKTITLE = "Proceedings of the Eleventh Conference Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-95)",
PUBLISHER = "Morgan Kaufmann",
ADDRESS = "San Francisco, CA",
YEAR = "1995",
PAGES = "386--393"
}


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