Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
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Plan Development using Local Probabilistic Models
Ella Atkins, Edmund Durfee, Kang Shin
Approximate models of world state transitions are necessary when building plans for complex systems operating in dynamic environments. External event probabilities can depend on state feature values as well as time spent in that particular state. We assign temporally -dependent probability functions to state transitions. These functions are used to locally compute state probabilities, which are then used to select highly probable goal paths and eliminate improbable states. This probabilistic model has been implemented in the Cooperative Intelligent Real-time Control Architecture (CIRCA), which combines an AI planner with a separate real-time system such that plans are developed, scheduled, and executed with real-time guarantees. We present flight simulation tests that demonstrate how our probabilistic model may improve CIRCA performance.
Keywords: Planning, uncertainty, real-time systems.
Pages: 49-56
PS Link: http://ai.eecs.umich.edu/people/marbles/papers/uai-96.psu
PDF Link: /papers/96/p49-atkins.pdf
AUTHOR = "Ella Atkins and Edmund Durfee and Kang Shin",
TITLE = "Plan Development using Local Probabilistic Models",
BOOKTITLE = "Proceedings of the Twelfth Conference Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-96)",
PUBLISHER = "Morgan Kaufmann",
ADDRESS = "San Francisco, CA",
YEAR = "1996",
PAGES = "49--56"

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